Most ‘actual’ consultants appear to suppose the chance to be very excessive… although its an open query what the precise targets are.
For instance, they could “simply” wish to hyperlink Donbas and Crimea, turning the already occupied East Ukraine right into a extra viable entity. Or just take away the Ukrainian functionality to intrude with these territories for the foreseeable future then withdraw from Western Ukraine once more.
A way more expansive possibility could be additionally taking and completely holding the Southern Coast together with Odessa. That will set up their targets respective management of the the Black Sea.
There finest evaluation/interview I’ve discovered is that this very lengthy piece:
It is 75 minutes lengthy, however its getting higher all alongside. Actually helped me to grasp what wr do not know and to place every thing in perspective; additionally to realize some understanding of the Russian perspective.