World demand for pure fuel will improve solely marginally this yr as declining use in Europe stifles a post-pandemic restoration in consumption of the gasoline.
Demand development will gradual to 0.9% after a 4.7% advance final yr, the Worldwide Vitality Company mentioned in its quarterly fuel report. Whereas use is predicted to extend in Asia and North America, demand is predicted to stoop sharply in Europe.
- European fuel demand set to fall 4.5% after 5.5% development in 2021
- Excessive fuel costs make coal extra enticing for energy era
The outlook exhibits how onerous the vitality disaster has hit Europe. Benchmark fuel costs tripled final yr, prompting utilities to modify to dirtier-burning coal and a few industrial producers to chop their use of the gasoline. Fuel demand within the area is forecast to plunge 4.5% after gaining 5.5% final yr, the company mentioned.
“Fuel-fired energy era is predicted to say no amid the sturdy growth of renewables, whereas excessive fuel costs proceed to weigh on its competitiveness vis-a-vis coal-fired era,” the IEA mentioned.
A return to common climate situations after an unusually chilly spring in 2021 must also decrease heating demand in Europe, which accounts for about 13% of world fuel consumption, the company mentioned.
Future provide stays a priority. After report outages at liquefied pure fuel initiatives final yr, new delays “may additional restrict provide availability within the subsequent few years,” the IEA mentioned.
“Delays are particularly pronounced for initiatives that have been initially focusing on full capability by 2024, together with LNG Canada, Mozambique LNG and Golden Move in america,” the IEA mentioned.
Nonetheless, post-pandemic demand restoration meant world fuel commerce grew by a report final yr, with pipeline fuel flows surging 12% and LNG commerce increasing by 6%.