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OK:
Russia has roughly ~127k troops alongside the border with Ukraine, unfold from camps close to Gomel and Mazyr (in Belarus) to areas bordering Jap Ukraine, together with the occipied areas in Crimea.
To ensure that a full scale assault on Ukraine to start they’re going to seemingly want ~200-250k troopers. That buildup, assuming they actually pushed it, would take 2-3 weeks to occur. I AM NOT SAYING THERE WILL BE AN INVASION IN 2-3 WEEKS.
What I’m saying is that, from in the present day, the earliest they may successfully mount an invasion power in the event that they put 90+% effort into it will be 2-3 weeks.
They’ve introduced in lots of materiel (this listing just isn’t complete, simply illustrative): BMPs (infantry combating autos), combined function and air superiority plane, shut air assist plane, s400 anti-aircraft missile programs, and plenty of chilly climate engineering gear.
This materiel is flashy as fuck in tiktok movies and CNN photos- and that is the purpose. It goes in the direction of making the populace of Ukraine panic and the folks of Europe and America fear.
HOWEVER! There’s a lacking part to this: there haven’t been any indicators of supporting materiel being introduced in. Little issues, equivalent to meals, gas, lubricants, subject hygiene provides, and medical gear. There’s additionally in all probability not sufficient ammo at their entrance line both.
Subsequent, we aren’t seeing the event of rear logistical bases. These logistical websites are required in trendy warfare so your entrance line does not cease advancing as soon as they run out of fuel and bullets. Russia is aware of this.
All of this stuff may be arrange in a month and a half give or take a handful of weeks. If executed concurrently with troop buildup, I feel it’s unimaginable for Russia to launch a full scale invasion anytime earlier than finish of March-early April. And, that’s provided that they put all their militiary effort into it beginning in the present day.
So, don’t panic. Don’t worry.
Stay calm, and keep it up. In America, urge your elected officers to attract a tough line towards Russian aggression. In Europe, do the identical. In Germany, inform your authorities to truly do one thing to assist out. Russia won’t do a rattling factor in the event that they credibly consider they’re going to be combating a united Europe, not to mention Europe+America.
In Ukraine, keep secure as greatest you may.
Edit: Since I wrote this, there was an official announcement {that a} US congressional delegation has departed for Brussels after which Kiev. Which means that US intelligence additionally believes that imminent invasion is unlikely- in any other case the journey wouldn’t have occurred.
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