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HONG KONG — John Lee rose by way of the ranks of Hong Kong’s safety companies, incomes a popularity as a hard-liner by crushing the town’s 2019 protest motion and curbing dissent as the town’s No. 2 official.
Now, he’s extensively anticipated to be Beijing’s option to take over as Hong Kong’s chief, an appointment that might replicate the central authorities’s emphasis on reinforcing its grip on the once-restive metropolis, even on the expense of its standing as a world monetary heart.
Mr. Lee mentioned Wednesday he had submitted his resignation as Hong Kong’s chief secretary and that he deliberate to run for chief govt if Beijing accepted his discover.
“It signifies he’s assured that he can get the help of Beijing, in any other case you wouldn’t take the danger of resigning out of your submit,” mentioned Lau Siu-kai, an adviser to Beijing on Hong Kong affairs.
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief govt since 2017, opened the door for Mr. Lee to run when she mentioned on Monday that she was stepping down after a single time period tormented by huge antigovernment protests and a Covid outbreak this 12 months with one of many world’s highest demise charges.
If Mr. Lee have been to maneuver into the highest job, he would carry to it a set of expertise and experiences sharply completely different than these of his predecessor, reflecting simply how a lot China’s priorities for Hong Kong have shifted.
Earlier than changing into chief secretary final 12 months, Mr. Lee, 64, had spent his complete profession with Hong Kong’s safety companies, first with the police, finally changing into deputy commissioner, earlier than shifting to the town’s safety bureau, which oversees the police, prisons, immigration and fireplace departments.
There, he grew to become the safety secretary, after which led the federal government’s marketing campaign to suppress the widespread protests in 2019 in opposition to a proposal to permit extraditions to mainland China, which quickly expanded right into a broader antigovernment motion.
Final 12 months, when the police arrested dozens of pro-democracy activists and politicians due to their efforts to decide on candidates to run within the metropolis’s legislative elections, Mr. Lee defended the transfer, saying their plans to paralyze Hong Kong’s authorities as soon as in workplace would lead the town right into a “bottomless abyss.” A lot of these arrested stay in custody awaiting trial for fees of subversion beneath a tricky nationwide safety legislation Beijing imposed in 2020.
Political analysts say Mr. Lee’s ascension to chief govt would present that Beijing nonetheless has deep considerations about Hong Kong’s political stability, even after a sweeping crackdown has left a lot of Hong Kong’s as soon as vocal pro-democracy camp both in jail or exile.
“Beijing’s precedence is to place political regime safety above monetary safety in Hong Kong,” mentioned Sonny Lo, a political analyst based mostly in Hong Kong.
“It isn’t stunning for a safety official to very seemingly take over the chief govt place in Hong Kong,” he added. “It conforms with the pattern of securitization in mainland China up to now 10 years, particularly after Xi Jinping got here to energy.”
Hong Kong’s chief is voted on by a committee of 1,500 folks loyal to the central authorities. The system has at all times chosen Beijing’s most well-liked candidate, but it surely was tightened additional final 12 months to get rid of the distant chance {that a} candidate favorable to the town’s opposition camp may very well be nominated.
One of many restrictions put in place was a system of in depth vetting of candidates for chief govt and the town’s legislative council. As chief secretary, Mr. Lee led that vetting committee, a sign of Beijing’s belief in him.
The lead-up to the choice of a brand new chief govt has been muted this 12 months, with critical candidates rising just one month earlier than the Might 8 ballot. The choice had been scheduled for March, however was postponed as a coronavirus outbreak surged in February.
The Newest on China: Key Issues to Know
Marriages and divorces. Confronted with a hovering divorce fee, China launched a rule forcing married {couples} to bear a 30-day “cooling off” interval earlier than formally parting methods. The transfer appears to have been efficient at lowering divorces, however is unlikely to assist with a demographic disaster fueled by a decline in marriages.
The relative quietness of the method displays Beijing’s objective of avoiding political division throughout the institution camp, Mr. Lau mentioned. “Hong Kong can not afford to have this sort of division, notably in view of Covid-19,” he mentioned.
Since Hong Kong returned to Chinese language management in 1997, its 4 prime leaders have come from both the enterprise world or the town’s civil service. None has served a full two phrases as allowed by legislation, and their tenures have typically been marred by unpopularity and ineffectiveness.
“We have now had one businessman, one skilled and two civil servants serving as chief govt,” mentioned Ronny Tong, a former lawmaker who now serves within the cupboard of Hong Kong’s chief govt. “It doesn’t appear any of them have been really as much as the duty. So for Beijing to say, maybe let’s attempt one other angle, I believe it’s comprehensible.”
Hong Kong’s system has ceaselessly been criticized for choosing loyalists with restricted political expertise who typically seem extra beholden to the central authorities than the populace at massive. Whereas Mr. Lee would come into the job with a unique background, critics say he would have comparable shortcomings.
“The Communist Celebration doesn’t decide leaders for Hong Kong with political expertise,” mentioned John P. Burns, an emeritus professor on the College of Hong Kong. “John Lee suits proper into this.”
As a result of Mr. Lee doesn’t have the identical networks of contacts by way of Hong Kong’s enterprise world and forms that his predecessors did, he would in all probability be extra depending on Beijing’s workplace in Hong Kong, the Central Liaison Workplace, for steering, Mr. Burns mentioned.
Different potential candidates who’ve been mentioned to succeed Mrs. Lam included Paul Chan, Hong Kong’s monetary secretary.
“Paul represents placing economic system within the forefront,” Mr. Tong mentioned. “John is admittedly extra of a safety man, and subsequently he’s extra relaxed with attempting to maintain Hong Kong secure and a protected political surroundings. The selection of the 2 would recommend by way of the record of priorities what Beijing is pondering.”
However Mr. Chan appeared to low cost that chance on Wednesday when he wished Mr. Lee luck within the choice contest, which was seen as an indication that he wouldn’t take part.
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