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With no new main discoveries of fuel fields within the final 20 years, Bangladesh is precariously heading in direction of a complete depletion of its pure fuel reserves throughout the subsequent 10 years.
In the present day, the nation has round 10 trillion cubic ft (tcf) of fuel left for extraction in 22 completely different fuel fields, whereas the annual consumption is near 1 tcf.
Due to elevated consumption, triggered by huge financial progress over the previous decade, amid no new main fuel discoveries, Bangladesh’s native fuel manufacturing is already marking vital drops, resulting in a shortfall of the fossil vitality supply and elevated fuel imports within the type of liquefied pure fuel (LNG).
Information offered by the government-owned nationwide vitality sources firm, Petrobangla, present that day by day fuel consumption within the nation at present stands at 3,126 million cubic ft per day (mmcfd). Of this, 2,284 million cubic ft of fuel is generated from home sources, whereas the remaining is imported from the Center East.
In 2020, the native fields produced 2,570.4 million cubic ft of fuel per day.
Inside a span of two years, the native fuel manufacturing has come down by 286.4 mmcfd and, consequently, reliance on LNG imports is rising with the intention to bridge the hole between the demand and provide from home sources.
However the unstable LNG pricing development on the worldwide market hints at a significant hazard for Bangladesh in availing the dear product in future.
Specialists and stakeholders stated depleting reserves within the operational fuel fields together with sluggish exploration work to find new fuel basins have set off alarm bells, foreshadowing a significant disruption in financial actions.
If a rigorous fuel exploration programme just isn’t taken up immediately, the gas-based industrial infrastructures, together with readymade garment factories, energy crops and fertiliser factories, will endure a giant setback with a sudden provide fall, they stated.
Fuel exploration authorities, nevertheless, stated sensing the long run vitality disaster, they’re taking multilayer work plans to extend the home provide.
Alongside conducting exploration work in plain land and off-shore areas, they’re now going to the hill areas looking for fuel, stated Nazmul Ahsan, chairman of Petrobangla, which is chargeable for fuel exploration actions.
The fuel reserves
As per the 2009 estimates by the UK-based RPS Vitality Restricted and these days found fields’ forecast, the recoverable proved and possible reserves within the 27 industrial fuel fields within the nation had been 29.54 trillion cubic ft.
In the meantime, Petrobangla’s information present that round 20 trillion cubic ft of the whole reserves had been extracted by 2021.
This implies if the present development of day by day manufacturing continues, the nation will be capable to produce pure fuel for under the subsequent 10 years as the prevailing industrial fuel fields produce round 900 billion cubic ft of fuel yearly.
If no main fuel area is found within the subsequent few years, the commercial progress and productiveness in several sectors will likely be severely affected, warn stakeholders.
In accordance with the Bangladesh Textile Mills Affiliation (BTMA), there are greater than 1,500 textile mills, together with spinning, weaving, dyeing, and ending models which can be depending on fuel.
BTMA President Mohammad Ali Khokon stated funding on this sector quantities to greater than $6 billion and over 86% of the nation’s export earnings come from textiles and associated merchandise.
One other funding of $2.5 billion is within the offing within the textile sector as exports of readymade clothes have continued to develop, he stated, nevertheless, including that the continuing fuel disaster and its rising costs are discouraging new investments within the sector.
Pure fuel exploration skilled and geologist Prof Badrul Imam stated if new fuel fields are usually not found, the nation will face an financial disruption forward.
“Our complete industrial infrastructure is constructed on fuel. So, a sudden provide disaster because of reserve depletion would possibly create a giant disruption within the economic system.
“If we may begin now, in all probability, we may get some fields with good reserves by subsequent six years,” he added.
Disaster hits fuel rationing provide
In the meantime, within the face of a mounting disaster, the federal government has began to chop fuel provide to some sectors.
In September final 12 months, it began rationing fuel at CNG stations for 4 hours a day, which has now been elevated to 6 hours.
Amid a surge in demand for electrical energy this Ramadan, Petrobangla on 10 April this 12 months issued a round saying to chop fuel provide to ration fuel provide to all industries together with forex-earning textile and readymade garment industries from 5pm to 9pm day by day for 15 days.
The choice was taken to produce required fuel to energy crops with the intention to guarantee uninterrupted electrical energy in Ramadan.
Petrobangla’s information present that the commercial sector consumes 15% of the whole fuel produced within the nation whereas the facility sector takes 46%.
Insiders within the energy sector, nevertheless, claimed that they aren’t getting the required provide of fuel for energy era, which is inflicting load shedding in several components of the nation.
The ability sector wants round 1,400 million cubic ft of fuel per day, however it’s getting just one,000-1,100 million cubic ft, stated officers on the Bangladesh Energy Growth Board.
17 explorations in 13 years
Discoveries and confirmations of recent fuel reserves can solely be assured by way of the exploration and drilling of wells. The extra explorations, the extra chance of discovery.
Neighbouring nation India progressively will increase its fuel nicely drilling actions every year.
Within the 2017 fiscal 12 months, the Indian State-owned Oil and Pure Fuel Company drilled 501 wells as in comparison with 386 wells in 2015-16.
However the exploration exercise is kind of poor in Bangladesh.
Within the final 13 years, the state-owned exploration firms together with worldwide oil firms drilled solely 17 exploratory wells in Bangladesh, in response to Petrobangla.
Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Manufacturing Сompany Ltd (Bapex), one of many manufacturing subsidiaries of Petrobangla, drilled 13 wells, whereas Sylhet Fuel Fields Ltd and the Bangladesh Fuel Fields Сompany Ltd drilled three and one nicely respectively.
Of the 17, seven wells had been discovered commercially viable for fuel exploration, although the estimated reserves weren’t very massive.
Usually, the worldwide common success fee of fuel exploration is one in each seven wells, however the ratio is one in three in Bangladesh.
Regardless of having an virtually double success fee in discovery, new fuel fields exploration within the nation has not but acquired anticipated consideration.
Mentioning that fuel exploration is ridiculously ignored in Bangladesh, Badrul Imam stated, “Regardless of having a really excessive discovery fee, Bangladesh is likely one of the least explored zones of the world.”
To expedite the exploration work, he steered eliminating bureaucratic tangles.
What’s Petrobangla’s plan?
Apprehensive of the looming fuel provide disaster, Petrobangla has undertaken some programmes centring the manufacturing firms.
Petrobangla Chairman Nazmul Ahsan stated they’re planning to restore the ageing fields, the dried-out wells, and deserted fields.
“We estimate that round 100 million cubic ft of fuel may very well be added to the nationwide grid from these fields by way of this course of,” he stated.
Other than this, Petrobangla can be planning to conduct deep drilling actions in 5 fields throughout the nation.
Out of the 5, two wells will likely be drilled in Bapex-operated Mobarakpur and Srikail fuel fields, one other two in BGFCL-operated Titas and Bakhrabad fields, and the remaining one in SGFL-owned Rashidpur fuel area.
“We’re additionally conducting survey work within the Hill Tracts areas which is predicted to be full by this 12 months. We’ll go for drilling if we discover any good prospect there,” stated Nazmul Ahsan.
In addition to finishing up exploration programmes, Petrobangla has additionally a plan to import liquefied pure fuel (LNG) from overseas.
The federal government has determined to arrange two extra floating storage regasification models (FSRUs) at Maheshkhali and Payra And a land-based LNG Terminal at Matarbari, stated the Petrobangla chairman.
FSRU is a crucial part required whereas transiting and transferring Liquefied Pure Fuel (LNG) by way of the oceanic channels.
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